Dear Friends,
It has been a while since our last correspondence, and we thought we would send you a note with regards to recent performance of Arc FX (as many have been asking), as well as to prepare you for some other very exciting developments coming down the tube.
After a nearly flawless first 5 months this year, ArcFX had cruised along without so much as a few small losing trades. In July, the strategy struggled a bit, first getting off to a bad start by bunting heads with some financial news served up by Draghi, and then followed by a few runaway trades. The month ended just under -3% in July at most brokers, and this month saw very little activity, albeit currently sitting just slightly above positive. Our reference account can be viewed here: http://www.myfxbook.com/members/ManagedFXHub/arcfx-2013-forward/455634
Many have asked why the sudden change in performance? The answer is two fold and quite simple – 1. This is the foreign exchange market (its not easy to trade and very few can win every month for an extended period of time). And 2. the Arc trader ran into a difficult patch with his strategy in the current market landscape. This happens. Even to the best of the best. We typically like to plan for, and anticipate 2-3 negative months in a GOOD year, leaving 9-10 positive months for a very good strategy. Having realistic expectations is the key!
The summer time can be a challenging period for many traders, and markets don’t often move with the same driving technicals or fundamentals. With less volume they are also more easily manipulated. Next month we should see trading look a little more familiar with the added market participants, and we are looking forward to seeing a repeat of the previous months before July and August. Don’t be fooled though and don’t let your guard down, September is not going to be a cruise down easy street by any means either, we have the Feds QE news, the debt ceiling, the Syria news, another potential Greek bailout or even an exit from the Euro zone. We are expecting a bit of a rollercoaster but are ready to manoeuvre our way through the markets and pull as many pips as possible.
Also worthy of noting, when market conditions change for the worse to profit with the general scalping strategy, Arc FX will attempt to capture pips from longer-term trades. When this happens trades will typically go on with less leverage. As noted earlier, next month we expect to see more of the familiar standard scalping style trades, with familiar leverages, and with a SLs kicking in around 35 pips.
The ArcFX original strategy however, is the long term strategy, which often works best in the summer months and in particular in this current type of market. There are 3 years of experience behind the long term trading so when you see longer term trades, rest assured it is for good reason and well thought out.
Last but not least, please remember that this is discretionary trading, not mechanical or systematic. “Dynamic analysis” is conducted on all trade operations, meaning discretion is given on how to adjust positions due to real time events in a changing market. Many algorithmic traders view this as panic trading or breaking rules. This is not the case – far from it!
This is human trading. To elaborate a little, all trade entries for ArcFX are generated by an automatic technical signal indicator. They are then fundamentally confirmed and supported by the trade team prior to opening it. After that, a new analysis is done at the start of each new trading session (should the trade overlap multiple sessions – which usually it doesn’t) and then managed manually until it closes. The reason for this is that market sentiment on the entry changes significantly from one market session to another (i.e., from the US to Asian session for example). For this reason TPs or SLs may be adjusted, new trades may be placed, or trades may be closed or partially closed prior to hitting their original profit targets or stops.
The ArcFX team’s statistics indicate that their higher accuracy is achieved when trades close quickly in the corresponding trading session (i.e., what we see with the scalping strategy). When scalp trades run away, or when long-term strategy trades are placed we may see trading change up in times like this when it is warranted. Remember that the Arc team always does 3 analyses per day (one for each session – regardless if there are open trades or not) and then monitor any open trade progression based on each new session analysis and will adjust accordingly when required.
The ArcFX team have a tremendous amount of experience when it comes to trading all kinds of financial markets, instruments and asset classes. They are however not perfect and will run into difficult market periods just as anyone else will. This is the reality of trading, and we must all accept it. Rest assured… mentally, and experience wise these guys are playing with a full deck, and are some of the brightest traders we currently know of, and have ever come across (and there has been a lot). They are very long-term focused and this is the fund you can expect to see year in and year out, cranking out safe, reliable, and stable returns. This is without a doubt our most popular strategies and the one trading the largest AUM.
Please take note that we are, due to demand also offering this account at 2x leverage as well. Those trading this with the 2x more risk, need to carefully understand the downside potential as the last two months have not been big performers. This just happened to occur right when we established the 2x risk account. You must need to understand and accept the risk profile when trading at 2x risk. That said the standard risk profile is comfortable for most people and this is what we generally recommend for investors.
Please contact us if you have any further questions on this program (or anything else for that matter), but we felt it was good to have answer a few questions regarding ArcFX. We will be in touch next week with our standard month end report. We have some very interesting and exciting developments taking place and some rather significant changes happening as well that we are happy to share with you. Until then….
Kind Regards,
Managed Forex Hub